Weather geeks

[b632]

What say you about the storm coming Wednesday?

[WrathOfAramark]

Kinda pessimistic on this one. No good forcing to push the storm to reform from the Ohio Valley to off the coast fast enough to stop the warm air getting all the way to the Canadian border. I think it will be a net loss. 2-4 inches of snow followed by rain. Good thing is winds shouldn't be too bad in Maine which is good because the ground isn't very frozen and there's a chance for about 1/10th of some ice accumulation from freezing rain as it changes over from the front end thump to rain especially in the elevated areas of northwest Maine.

Good news is it's 2 1/2 days away so models can be wrong.

Caveat: I am a complete amateur so I am 100% likely to be very wrong

[cccski]

From what I understand, the models are having one heck of a time with this storm. Three days ago, the NWS (National Weather Service) at Sugarloaf 2172 ft level had 40 degrees and rain. Two days ago it decreased to 35 degrees and snow to rain. As of this morning, it is calling for cold and heavy snow Tuesday night into Wednesday lasting until about 4PM with a high of 32 degrees, then into the 20s Wednesday night with snow after 1AM and then 32 degrees and partly sunny for Thanksgiving with a 30% chance of rain showers.

Following the storm, cold and windy.

Looking at the trend, therefore, each forecast has become more snowy. Having said that, the next forecast could be more rain.

I think predicting weather in the northeast is like trying to herd cats.

Looking forward into December, some models are calling for a warm up before Xmas, but the CFSv2 has it cold through New Years. Interestingly, the CFSv2 doesn't see cold unless it really is going to be cold, so I'm hopeful.

One of the big reasons the models are so disparate this season is whether they are going with El Niño inputs or MEI inputs (Multivariate El Niño Index) which are very different this year.

Caveat: I, too, am total amateur who enjoys the weather, but I am probably wrong more than I am right. Be that as it may, I am happy to relay what I see and hear.

To all: If you want to get a spot forecast for Sugarloaf on NWS, Google NWS. In the dialogue box in the upper left corner, type in Stratton, Maine. That gets you to about 1400 ft. Then, go to the topo map lower right. Move your cursor to the 4239 number and click. You will get 2172, 3350, or sometimes 2881 ft. The forecast will then change to represent that altitude. I usually go to 2172 ft because that will tell you what's really going to happen for the entire mountain, but 3350 ft will give the winds to look out for.

Fingers crossed for Wednesday.

[Mr. Vesper]

Get The Jack ready

[b632]

Get The Jack ready

There is the endorsement we needed…let it snow

[Glade Monkey]

To all: If you want to get a spot forecast for Sugarloaf on NWS, Google NWS. In the dialogue box in the upper left corner, type in Stratton, Maine. That gets you to about 1400 ft. Then, go to the topo map lower right. Move your cursor to the 4239 number and click. You will get 2172, 3350, or sometimes 2881 ft. The forecast will then change to represent that altitude. I usually go to 2172 ft because that will tell you what's really going to happen for the entire mountain, but 3350 ft will give the winds to look out for.

Fingers crossed for Wednesday.

I use this site for hiking and it works well for SL winters too
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Sugarloaf-Mountain-Franklin-County-Maine/forecasts/1295
Looks like 5-6" at the base with some mixing at the end (that "base" level is actually way down by the Rack) and 8+ up top tonight thru tomorrow

[WrathOfAramark]

Glad to be wrong about this one. Will be some wet stuff at the end but it'll just make a crust or wet heavy top.

Literally just found this a few minutes ago. I've used [url]rangeleypilots.com[/url] for a while as a good quick weather reference. It has a weather station and webcam from the Rangeley airport and is about the same elevation as my house and the base of Sugarloaf. But I just found out that the data goes to/from an FAA website that allows you to see more weather data and webcams. And other airports that have webcams and weather stations.

Cool, putting that in my back pocket.