Snow Forecast Prediction Tracking

[shot ski]

Let's try and see who (professionals/models ) is faring best about 24-48 hrs out or so. We'll see if I am motivated enough to keep this going for storms above 12". Feel free to nominate someone or post a map. We will award the winner to whoever is closest to the total posted by Sugarloaf after the event is over, price is right rules are not in effect but accuracy within a smaller range should be considered.

Sources:
tropicaltidbits.com GFS/CMC
tomorrow.io ; Personalized forecasts
weather.us ; Euro
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 5sXIHbMJmO NWS

First up 12/15 forecast for weekend storm ending sunday morning:

CMC: 9-12"
GFS: 12-16"
NWS: 10-22" Map shows 12-18" on twitter
Snow-forecast (mid): 14.6"
Euro: 16-20"
Tomorrow.io: 18.7"

Leaderboard: N/A

[Glade Monkey]

I nominate the mountain forecast which I also use for hiking and set to the summit for higher totals
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Sugarloaf-Mountain-Franklin-County-Maine/forecasts/1295
If both they & my cyphering are correct then Sugarloaf should report
1" Friday AM
5" more Saturday AM (make it 6" using the special resort ruler)
15.5" more Sunday AM (make it 18" with the same ruler)
STORM TOTAL = 22-25" - Let's go with an even 2 feet. Final Answer!
No matter the totals this storm is both overdue and also a nice early Christmas present

[myell]

I find it hard to believe, but OpenSnow is calling for 31 inches at 3700' from Friday AM through Sunday PM.

If we get a solid 2 feet that would be AMAZING!

[Ltaylor56]

NWS is showing 12-20 at 2333’

[waldo]

I did a double take too this am reading the open snow forecast... 30" - love the idea. And it would be a Christmas miracle...

[shot ski]

I’d say mountain-forecast wins the first round with a predicted total of 22-25” and actual total of 30”. The tomorrow.io forecast and euro were next best.

Leaderboard mountain-forecast 1

[Glade Monkey]

Dec 23-25 Storm (week 2)
'Mountain Forecast' https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Sugarloaf-Mountain-Franklin-County-Maine/forecasts/1295

Stay home Friday - or plan to skin up, layer up and stay low. A few inches of snow up top and light rain down low during the day.
Accompanied by increasing winds at the summit which could gust up to 80mph by end of day! Might be a Skidway only lift day, if that even runs.

Winds slowly diminish overnight as they sweep in a big temp drop from above freezing down to single digits. Somewhere overnight there may be a changeover to heavy rain at the summit, followed by a heavy 6" of snow.

Saturday - the sun peaks out and winds keep dropping but it will BE cold and FEEL really cold. Expect everything to be setup hard, maybe even some lifts.

Christmas Day seems like a repeat of Saturday weather-wise. I'd bet mountain ops will fill the role of Santa's elves and keep a lot open and most lifts running.
NET 4" gain from the storm, but accompanied by widespread New England boilerplate

[shot ski]

I'm not sure between the wind and the rain how this one will get measured out, especially at TOS or summit, but i'll add these for what its worth and expect a loss to the base and snowpack either way. Most of this falls on the front edge and will be wiped out but here are the offerings:

GFS: 1-2"
CMC: 6-8"
Euro 6-8"
Tomorrow.io: 6-8"
NWS 1-3"

[SpillwayEast]

The temp is going to drop quick once the storm passes and will set everything up like concrete..........classic new england thaw/freeze.

[shot ski]

I’ll bring this back for Friday into Saturday if I have to. It is peak depth, peak conditions at sugarloaf and shot-ski is coming. See you at the rack.

[Mr. Vesper]

14" from current storm. Stump Gun should be fine condition

[shot ski]

Who do you trust two and a half days outside for friday nights event? For now looks like Boston may outperform Sugarloaf but a lot of movement happening. Things have definitely shifted south in the last 24 hours but should get a refresh at least tomorrow.

GFS: 1-3"
GEM/Candaian: 6-8"
Euro: 6"
tomorrow.io: 5.5"

[TOOTH]

Who do you trust two and a half days outside for friday nights event? For now looks like Boston may outperform Sugarloaf but a lot of movement happening. Things have definitely shifted south in the last 24 hours but should get a refresh at least tomorrow.

GFS: 1-3"
GEM/Candaian: 6-8"
Euro: 6"
tomorrow.io: 5.5"

3 out of 4 are basically similar. I'm going with those for now. Let's see the changes over the next 24. I love the whole process of watching and praying for snow. They're calling for up to 6 inches down here in the Poconos. When that happens I've noticed you guys do pretty well.

[Glade Monkey]

Wednesday prediction
THU - 2-4" during the day
FRI - Dusting overnight
SAT - Some wind
SUN - Gales up top (expect wind holds and beware wind chill!)

[shot ski]

Who do you trust two and a half days outside for friday nights event? For now looks like Boston may outperform Sugarloaf but a lot of movement happening. Things have definitely shifted south in the last 24 hours but should get a refresh at least tomorrow.

GFS: 1-3"
GEM/Candaian: 6-8"
Euro: 6"
tomorrow.io: 5.5"

Lastest Euro showing 12" for Saturday. NWS showing 4-8" Thursday and an 80% chance of snow on Saturday.

The GFS just isn't showing the Low getting north of Long Island which means the precip doesn't get up to SL. The Canadian and the Euro have the low centered above Nantucket, thus the higher total. The euro is showing a bit of a stronger

[Alpiner]

I am guaranteeing 12"+ Saturday. Because I have to drive back to SL from Val St. Come, PQ that evening. Drove there Tuesday afternoon during the storm. 6.5 hours on white snow-covered back roads. You're welcome.

[Glade Monkey]

I am guaranteeing 12"+ Saturday. Because I have to drive back to SL from Val St. Come, PQ that evening. Drove there Tuesday afternoon during the storm. 6.5 hours on white snow-covered back roads. You're welcome.

Thanks - shouldn't be any lines at the border crossing

[shot ski]

Talked with the only man who matters , Goodtimes, at D24 and he personally guaranteed 6-10” so there you have it. The models are underdone , but the majority of the precip stays to the south unfortunately.

[gondicar]

Thoughts on March weather from Mr. Belushi

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpVSB9kA ... MyMTA2M2Y=

[High Ball]

Talked with the only man who matters , Goodtimes, at D24 and he personally guaranteed 6-10” so there you have it. The models are underdone , but the majority of the precip stays to the south unfortunately.

Looking closer to 3”.

[shot ski]

Talked with the only man who matters , Goodtimes, at D24 and he personally guaranteed 6-10” so there you have it. The models are underdone , but the majority of the precip stays to the south unfortunately.

Looking closer to 3”.

Don’t need much more than what is out there now but I’ll take the over on 3”

[shot ski]

Suck it high ball

[shot ski]

A lot of meteorologists were too scared to say that sugarloaf would get 6-10” today earlier in the week ,but I wasn’t. Shot-ski doesn’t miss. 30” this week , not bad.

[Glade Monkey]

A lot of meteorologists were too scared to say that sugarloaf would get 6-10” today earlier in the week ,but I wasn’t. Shot-ski doesn’t miss. 30” this week , not bad.

Well done - Winter Storm Quest really delivered!
March snow total already equals February’s & more on the way

[High Ball]

Suck it high ball

You nailed it, bub!!

[shot ski]

Suck it high ball

You nailed it, bub!!

All in good fun , it’s nice to see your predictions pan out in the flesh and enjoy the fruits of your labor. Among some of the best two consecutive days I’ve had at SL.

[shot ski]

Low in the gulf of maine alert for Tuesday , that is all for now

[Pow on the Mao]

tuesday morning ski program !!

[Mr. Vesper]

24" to 30" by Friday, March 17, 2023

[skiMEbike]

Looks like another potential big storm for this weekend....What are the weather "experts" thinking about this one ?